Trade Value Radar
Buy low, sell high. Slumps that should end and hot streaks that won't last, with the reason for each.
Buy low
Same or bigger role, cold shooting. The points should come back.
-
Nikola JokicC, DEN, 37 min a game
Usual 66.3 Last 5 52.6 Fair 63.1+10.5pts due back
Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 17 under on threes.
-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG, OKC, 33 min a game
Usual 55.5 Last 5 43.6 Fair 53.4+9.8pts due back
Bigger role: minutes -0, shots +2 a game. Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 12 under on threes.
-
Jalen BrunsonG, NYK, 35 min a game
Usual 41.6 Last 5 38.8 Fair 47.5+8.7pts due back
Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%, 4 under on threes and 13 under at the line.
-
Brandon MillerF, CHA, 34 min a game
Usual 33.7 Last 5 38.2 Fair 46.4+8.2pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, shots +8 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG% and 10 under on threes.
-
Desmond BaneG, ORL, 34 min a game
Usual 35.6 Last 5 27.0 Fair 35.1+8.1pts due back
Shooting 15 points under his usual FG%, 6 under on threes and 6 under at the line.
-
Scottie BarnesF, TOR, 32 min a game
Usual 44.0 Last 5 44.0 Fair 51.8+7.8pts due back
Bigger role: minutes -1, shots +8 a game. Shooting 4 points under his usual FG% and 14 under on threes.
-
Peyton WatsonG, CLE, 30 min a game
Usual 28.7 Last 5 25.0 Fair 31.8+6.8pts due back
Shooting 12 points under his usual FG% and 27 under on threes.
-
Naz ReidC, CHA, 27 min a game
Usual 29.9 Last 5 24.8 Fair 31.4+6.6pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +1, shots +4 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%.
-
Joel EmbiidC, PHI, 35 min a game
Usual 43.5 Last 5 35.8 Fair 42.4+6.6pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, shots -2 a game. Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 19 under on threes.
-
James HardenG, CLE, 35 min a game
Usual 43.5 Last 5 29.6 Fair 36.2+6.6pts due back
Shooting 7 points under his usual FG%, 7 under on threes and 5 under at the line.
-
Rudy GobertC, MIN, 29 min a game
Usual 32.5 Last 5 21.6 Fair 27.9+6.3pts due back
Shooting 24 points under his usual FG% and 10 under at the line.
-
Franz WagnerF, ORL, 34 min a game
Usual 33.9 Last 5 33.6 Fair 39.1+5.5pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, shots +2 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%, 16 under on threes and 4 under at the line.
-
Josh HartG, NYK, 33 min a game
Usual 31.9 Last 5 27.0 Fair 32.5+5.5pts due back
Shooting 17 points under his usual FG% and 9 under on threes.
-
Myles TurnerC, MIL, 26 min a game
Usual 27.4 Last 5 20.8 Fair 26.0+5.2pts due back
Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 20 under on threes.
-
Day'Ron SharpeC, BKN, 22 min a game
Usual 23.1 Last 5 18.8 Fair 23.9+5.1pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +3, shots -0 a game. Shooting 12 points under his usual FG% and 18 under at the line.
Sell high
Output up on hot shooting or borrowed minutes. Sell before it fades.
-
Cooper FlaggF, DAL, 32 min a game
Usual 39.7 Last 5 57.6 Fair 50.37.3pts likely to fade
Shooting 9 points over his usual FG%.
-
Paul ReedF, DET, 29 min a game
Usual 20.9 Last 5 33.2 Fair 33.3-0.1pts likely to fade
Minutes up 15 while Isaiah Joe is out, and he's due back. Shooting 5 points over his usual at the line.
-
Daniel GaffordF, DAL, 24 min a game
Usual 24.8 Last 5 33.0 Fair 29.73.3pts likely to fade
Shooting 7 points over his usual FG%.
-
Paul GeorgeF, BOS, 31 min a game
Usual 35.2 Last 5 42.4 Fair 38.83.6pts likely to fade
Bigger role: minutes +0, shots +2 a game. Shooting 6 points over his usual at the line.
-
Ace BaileyG, UTA, 30 min a game
Usual 24.9 Last 5 32.0 Fair 27.24.8pts likely to fade
Shooting 7 points over his usual FG%.
-
De'Anthony MeltonG, GSW, 21 min a game
Usual 23.2 Last 5 28.4 Fair 22.06.4pts likely to fade
Shooting 7 points over his usual FG% and 21 over on threes.
-
Wendell Carter Jr.C, ORL, 32 min a game
Usual 26.6 Last 5 33.0 Fair 29.13.9pts likely to fade
Shooting 14 points over his usual FG%, 7 over on threes and 6 over at the line.
-
Derrick Jones Jr.F, LAC, 29 min a game
Usual 22.9 Last 5 29.2 Fair 23.35.9pts likely to fade
Shooting 11 points over his usual FG% and 24 over on threes.
-
Tari EasonF, HOU, 30 min a game
Usual 22.9 Last 5 29.0 Fair 28.60.4pts likely to fade
Minutes up 4 while Alperen Sengun is out, and he's due back. Shooting 16 points over his usual at the line.
-
Jaylen WellsF, MEM, 28 min a game
Usual 20.8 Last 5 26.8 Fair 20.86.0pts likely to fade
Shooting 14 points over his usual FG% and 9 over on threes.
-
Julian ChampagnieF, SAS, 28 min a game
Usual 24.1 Last 5 30.0 Fair 25.94.1pts likely to fade
Shooting 6 points over his usual FG% and 11 over on threes.
-
Brook LopezC, LAC, 23 min a game
Usual 20.3 Last 5 26.2 Fair 22.04.2pts likely to fade
Shooting 14 points over his usual FG%, 8 over on threes and 8 over at the line.
-
Jaden McDanielsF, MIN, 33 min a game
Usual 31.0 Last 5 36.8 Fair 32.34.5pts likely to fade
Bigger role: minutes +2, shots +2 a game. Shooting 4 points over his usual FG%.
-
Stephen CurryG, GSW, 28 min a game
Usual 42.9 Last 5 47.4 Fair 43.34.1pts likely to fade
Shooting 5 points over his usual from three and 8 over at the line.
-
Sam HauserF, BOS, 21 min a game
Usual 19.5 Last 5 17.4 Fair 13.34.1pts likely to fade
Smaller role: minutes -4 a game. Shooting 8 points over his usual FG% and 11 over on threes.
How we judge luck vs real change
- Role first. If his minutes and shot attempts held steady, his role didn't change, so a jump or drop in points is down to how his shots fell.
- A fair score. We rescore his recent games with his usual shooting and his usual rates for rebounds, assists and turnovers. The gap between that and what he scored is the luck, and luck evens out.
- Real change stays. More minutes or more shots is a bigger role, so it doesn't count as luck. Minutes borrowed from a teammate who's due back are flagged, since they'll go.
- Enough games. A call needs 18 minutes a game lately and enough games outside the window to know his usual level.
Points are ESPN's default points scoring, as one number for every kind of league. "Fair for his role" keeps his recent minutes and shot attempts, but swaps in his usual shooting percentages and steadier rates for steals, blocks, rebounds and assists. The line runs from his recent scoring to what his role should score, and the big number is its length, in points a game.