Trade Value Radar
Buy low, sell high. Slumps that should end and hot streaks that won't last, with the reason for each.
How to read this
- Hollow dot his points a game lately
- Filled dot what his role should score, with his usual shooting
- Line the points due back, or likely to fade
- Maple tick his usual level
Buy low
Same or bigger role, cold shooting. The points should come back.
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Nikola JokicC, DEN, 37 min a game
Usual 66.3 Last 5 52.6 Fair 63.1+10.5pts due back
Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 17 under on threes.
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Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG, OKC, 33 min a game
Usual 55.5 Last 5 43.6 Fair 53.4+9.8pts due back
Bigger role: shots +2 a game. Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 12 under on threes.
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Jalen BrunsonG, NYK, 35 min a game
Usual 41.6 Last 5 38.8 Fair 47.5+8.7pts due back
Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%, 4 under on threes and 13 under at the line.
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Brandon MillerF, CHA, 34 min a game
Usual 33.7 Last 5 38.2 Fair 46.4+8.2pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, shots +8 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG% and 10 under on threes.
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Desmond BaneG, ORL, 34 min a game
Usual 35.6 Last 5 27.0 Fair 35.1+8.1pts due back
Shooting 15 points under his usual FG%, 6 under on threes and 6 under at the line.
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Scottie BarnesF, TOR, 32 min a game
Usual 44.0 Last 5 44.0 Fair 51.8+7.8pts due back
Bigger role: shots +8, though minutes -1 a game. Shooting 4 points under his usual FG% and 14 under on threes.
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Peyton WatsonG, CLE, 30 min a game
Last 5 25.0 Fair 31.8+6.8pts due back
Shooting 12 points under his usual FG% and 27 under on threes.
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Naz ReidC, CHA, 27 min a game
Usual 29.9 Last 5 24.8 Fair 31.4+6.6pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +1, shots +4 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%.
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Joel EmbiidC, PHI, 35 min a game
Usual 43.5 Last 5 35.8 Fair 42.4+6.6pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, though shots -2 a game. Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 19 under on threes.
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James HardenG, CLE, 35 min a game
Usual 43.5 Last 5 29.6 Fair 36.2+6.6pts due back
Shooting 7 points under his usual FG%, 7 under on threes and 5 under at the line.
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Rudy GobertC, MIN, 29 min a game
Usual 32.5 Last 5 21.6 Fair 27.9+6.3pts due back
Shooting 24 points under his usual FG% and 10 under at the line.
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Franz WagnerF, ORL, 34 min a game
Usual 33.9 Last 5 33.6 Fair 39.1+5.5pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +4, shots +2 a game. Shooting 5 points under his usual FG%, 16 under on threes and 4 under at the line.
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Josh HartG, NYK, 33 min a game
Usual 31.9 Last 5 27.0 Fair 32.5+5.5pts due back
Shooting 17 points under his usual FG% and 9 under on threes.
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Myles TurnerC, MIL, 26 min a game
Usual 27.4 Last 5 20.8 Fair 26.0+5.2pts due back
Shooting 9 points under his usual FG% and 20 under on threes.
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Day'Ron SharpeC, BKN, 22 min a game
Usual 23.1 Last 5 18.8 Fair 23.9+5.1pts due back
Bigger role: minutes +3 a game. Shooting 12 points under his usual FG% and 18 under at the line.
How it works
We rescore each player's recent games with his usual shooting, so what's left is luck: cold shooting that should bounce back, or a hot streak that won't last. A real change in role, like more minutes or more shots, doesn't count as luck.
Read the full method
- Role first. If his minutes and shot attempts held steady, his role didn't change, so a jump or drop in points is down to how his shots fell.
- A fair score. We rescore his recent games with his usual shooting, twos and threes separately, and steadier rates for rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. The gap between that and what he scored is the luck, and luck evens out.
- His usual level. His games outside the window, this season and last, with last season's counting a little less.
- Real change stays. More minutes or more shots is a bigger role, so it doesn't count as luck. Minutes borrowed from a teammate who's due back are flagged, since they'll go.
- Enough games. A call needs 18 minutes a game lately, enough games outside the window to know his usual level, and a gap of at least 2.5 points or 8% of his usual score, whichever is bigger.
- Points. ESPN's default points scoring, as one number for every kind of league.